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Target Population Synthesis using CT-GAN

Rastogi, Tanay, Jonsson, Daniel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Agent-based models used in scenario planning for transportation and urban planning usually require detailed population information from the base as well as target scenarios. These populations are usually provided by synthesizing fake agents through deterministic population synthesis methods. However, these deterministic population synthesis methods face several challenges, such as handling high-dimensional data, scalability, and zero-cell issues, particularly when generating populations for target scenarios. This research looks into how a deep generative model called Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CT-GAN) can be used to create target populations either directly from a collection of marginal constraints or through a hybrid method that combines CT-GAN with Fitness-based Synthesis Combinatorial Optimization (FBS-CO). The research evaluates the proposed population synthesis models against travel survey and zonal-level aggregated population data. Results indicate that the stand-alone CT-GAN model performs the best when compared with FBS-CO and the hybrid model. CT-GAN by itself can create realistic-looking groups that match single-variable distributions, but it struggles to maintain relationships between multiple variables. However, the hybrid model demonstrates improved performance compared to FBS-CO by leveraging CT-GAN ability to generate a descriptive base population, which is then refined using FBS-CO to align with target-year marginals. This study demonstrates that CT-GAN represents an effective methodology for target populations and highlights how deep generative models can be successfully integrated with conventional synthesis techniques to enhance their performance.


Vehicle detection from GSV imagery: Predicting travel behaviour for cycling and motorcycling using Computer Vision

Kyriaki, null, Kokka, null, Goel, Rahul, Abbas, Ali, Nice, Kerry A., Martial, Luca, Labib, SM, Ke, Rihuan, Schönlieb, Carola Bibiane, Woodcock, James

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transportation influence health by shaping exposure to physical activity, air pollution and injury risk. Comparative data on cycling and motorcycling behaviours is scarce, particularly at a global scale. Street view imagery, such as Google Street View (GSV), combined with computer vision, is a valuable resource for efficiently capturing travel behaviour data. This study demonstrates a novel approach using deep learning on street view images to estimate cycling and motorcycling levels across diverse cities worldwide. We utilized data from 185 global cities. The data on mode shares of cycling and motorcycling estimated using travel surveys or censuses. We used GSV images to detect cycles and motorcycles in sampled locations, using 8000 images per city. The YOLOv4 model, fine-tuned using images from six cities, achieved a mean average precision of 89% for detecting cycles and motorcycles. A global prediction model was developed using beta regression with city-level mode shares as outcome, with log transformed explanatory variables of counts of GSV-detected images with cycles and motorcycles, while controlling for population density. We found strong correlations between GSV motorcycle counts and motorcycle mode share (0.78) and moderate correlations between GSV cycle counts and cycling mode share (0.51). Beta regression models predicted mode shares with $R^2$ values of 0.614 for cycling and 0.612 for motorcycling, achieving median absolute errors (MDAE) of 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively. Scatterplots demonstrated consistent prediction accuracy, though cities like Utrecht and Cali were outliers. The model was applied to 60 cities globally for which we didn't have recent mode share data. We provided estimates for some cities in the Middle East, Latin America and East Asia. With computer vision, GSV images capture travel modes and activity, providing insights alongside traditional data sources.


Urban Mobility Assessment Using LLMs

Bhandari, Prabin, Anastasopoulos, Antonios, Pfoser, Dieter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding urban mobility patterns and analyzing how people move around cities helps improve the overall quality of life and supports the development of more livable, efficient, and sustainable urban areas. A challenging aspect of this work is the collection of mobility data by means of user tracking or travel surveys, given the associated privacy concerns, noncompliance, and high cost. This work proposes an innovative AI-based approach for synthesizing travel surveys by prompting large language models (LLMs), aiming to leverage their vast amount of relevant background knowledge and text generation capabilities. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of this approach across various U.S. metropolitan areas by comparing the results against existing survey data at different granularity levels. These levels include (i) pattern level, which compares aggregated metrics like the average number of locations traveled and travel time, (ii) trip level, which focuses on comparing trips as whole units using transition probabilities, and (iii) activity chain level, which examines the sequence of locations visited by individuals. Our work covers several proprietary and open-source LLMs, revealing that open-source base models like Llama-2, when fine-tuned on even a limited amount of actual data, can generate synthetic data that closely mimics the actual travel survey data, and as such provides an argument for using such data in mobility studies.


An Activity-Based Model of Transport Demand for Greater Melbourne

Both, Alan, Singh, Dhirendra, Jafari, Afshin, Giles-Corti, Billie, Gunn, Lucy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we present an algorithm for creating a synthetic population for the Greater Melbourne area using a combination of machine learning, probabilistic, and gravity-based approaches. We combine these techniques in a hybrid model with three primary innovations: 1. when assigning activity patterns, we generate individual activity chains for every agent, tailored to their cohort; 2. when selecting destinations, we aim to strike a balance between the distance-decay of trip lengths and the activity-based attraction of destination locations; and 3. we take into account the number of trips remaining for an agent so as to ensure they do not select a destination that would be unreasonable to return home from. Our method is completely open and replicable, requiring only publicly available data to generate a synthetic population of agents compatible with commonly used agent-based modeling software such as MATSim. The synthetic population was found to be accurate in terms of distance distribution, mode choice, and destination choice for a variety of population sizes.


Deriving the Traveler Behavior Information from Social Media: A Case Study in Manhattan with Twitter

Zhang, Zhenhua

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Social media platforms, such as Twitter, provide a totally new perspective in dealing with the traffic problems and is anticipated to complement the traditional methods. The geo-tagged tweets can provide the Twitter users' location information and is being applied in traveler behavior analysis. This paper explores the full potentials of Twitter in deriving travel behavior information and conducts a case study in Manhattan Area. A systematic method is proposed to extract displacement information from Twitter locations. Our study shows that Twitter has a unique demographics which combine not only local residents but also the tourists or passengers. For individual user, Twitter can uncover his/her travel behavior features including the time-of-day and location distributions on both weekdays and weekends. For all Twitter users, the aggregated travel behavior results also show that the time-of-day travel patterns in Manhattan Island resemble that of the traffic flow; the identification of OD pattern is also promising by comparing with the results of travel survey.


A Data-Driven Analytical Framework of Estimating Multimodal Travel Demand Patterns using Mobile Device Location Data

Xiong, Chenfeng, Darzi, Aref, Pan, Yixuan, Ghader, Sepehr, Zhang, Lei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT While benefiting people's daily life in so many ways, smartphones and their location-based services are generating massive mobile device location data that has great potential to help us understand travel demand patterns and make transportation planning for the future. While recent studies have analyzed human travel behavior using such new data sources, limited research has been done to extract multimodal travel demand patterns out of them. This paper presents a datadriven analytical framework to bridge the gap. To be able to successfully detect travel modes using the passively collected location information, we conduct a smartphone-based GPS survey to collect ground truth observations. Then a jointly trained single-layer model and deep neural network for travel mode imputation is developed. Being "wide" and "deep" at the same time, this model combines the advantages of both types of models. The framework also incorporates the multimodal transportation network in order to evaluate the closeness of trip routes to the nearby rail, metro, highway and bus lines and therefore enhance the imputation accuracy. To showcase the applications of the introduced framework in answering real-world planning needs, a separate mobile device location data is processed through trip end identification and attribute generation, in a way that the travel mode imputation can be directly applied. The estimated multimodal travel demand patterns are then validated against typical household travel surveys in the same Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metropolitan Regions. BACKGROUND Thanks to the rapidly evolving smartphone industry and mobile computing technology, mobile device location data has never been so readily available before. According to the Pew Research Center, the United States has around 223 million smartphone users in 2017 (Mobile Fact Sheet). More than three-quarters of Americans (77%) now own a smartphone, with lower-income Americans and senior citizens above the age of 50 exhibiting a sharp uptick in ownership over the past years. These devices are generating a massive amount of location data continuously through the widespread use of location-based service (LBS) via Wi-Fi hotspots, cellular towers, Global Positioning System (GPS)-based technologies, and GPSenabled applications on these smartphone devices. This ubiquitous LBS data provides an opportunity to innovatively and accurately observe individuals' travel behavior and model the overall travel demand patterns for a region, a state, and even an entire country.


Mining User Behaviour from Smartphone data, a literature review

Servizi, Valentino, Pereira, Francisco C., Anderson, Marie K., Nielsen, Otto A.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

To study users' travel behaviour and travel time between origin and destination, researchers employ travel surveys. Although there is consensus in the field about the potential, after over ten years of research and field experimentation, Smartphone-based travel surveys still did not take off to a large scale. Here, computer intelligence algorithms take the role that operators have in Traditional Travel Surveys; since we train each algorithm on data, performances rest on the data quality, thus on the ground truth. Inaccurate validations affect negatively: labels, algorithms' training, travel diaries precision, and therefore data validation, within a very critical loop. Interestingly, boundaries are proven burdensome to push even for Machine Learning methods. To support optimal investment decisions for practitioners, we expose the drivers they should consider when assessing what they need against what they get. This paper highlights and examines the critical aspects of the underlying research and provides some recommendations: (i) from the device perspective, on the main physical limitations; (ii) from the application perspective, the methodological framework deployed for the automatic generation of travel diaries; (iii)from the ground truth perspective, the relationship between user interaction, methods, and data.


Ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks for Mode Inference in Smartphone Travel Survey

Yazdizadeh, Ali, Patterson, Zachary, Farooq, Bilal

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to classify the transportation mode of trip data collected as part of a large-scale smartphone travel survey in Montreal, Canada. Our proposed ensemble library is composed of a series of CNN models with different hyper-parameter values and CNN architectures. In our final model, we combine the output of CNN models using "average voting", "majority voting" and "optimal weights" methods. Furthermore, we exploit the ensemble library by deploying a Random Forest model as a meta-learner. The ensemble method with random forest as meta-learner shows an accuracy of 91.8% which surpasses the other three ensemble combination methods, as well as other comparable models reported in the literature. The "majority voting" and "optimal weights" combination methods result in prediction accuracy rates around 89%, while "average voting" is able to achieve an accuracy of only 85%.


Mobility Sequence Extraction and Labeling Using Sparse Cell Phone Data

Yang, Yingxiang (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) | Widhalm, Peter (Austrian Institute of Technology) | Athavale, Shounak (Ford Motor Company) | Gonzalez, Marta C. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

AAAI Conferences

Human mobility modeling for either transportation system development or individual location based services has a tangible impact on people's everyday experience. In recent years cell phone data has received a lot of attention as a promising data source because of the wide coverage, long observation period, and low cost. The challenge in utilizing such data is how to robustly extract people's trip sequences from sparse and noisy cell phone data and endow the extracted trips with semantic meaning, i.e., trip purposes.In this study we reconstruct trip sequences from sparse cell phone records. Next we propose a Bayesian trip purpose classification method and compare it to a Markov random field based trip purpose clustering method, representing scenarios with and without labeled training data respectively. This procedure shows how the cell phone data, despite their coarse granularity and sparsity, can be turned into a low cost, long term, and ubiquitous sensor network for mobility related services.